Uganda Economic Outlook

Annual GDP growth accelerated to 5.2% in Q4 2021 from 3.5% in Q3, bringing overall growth for the year to 6.0%, as the economy recovered from the pandemic. Additionally, conditions strengthened notably at the tail end of the year, with GDP expanding 3.1% in sequential terms. The panorama improved further at the outset of 2022, aided by the removal of Covid-19 restrictions. Annual economic activity growth was robust in January–February. However, underlying momentum slowed halfway through Q1, as activity marginally declined in monthly terms in February. More positively, operating conditions improved at a stronger pace on average in Q1 and employment levels continued to rise in March, which should have somewhat cushioned the impact of mounting price pressures—especially for oil and its derivatives—on spending.

Uganda Economic Growth

GDP is set to expand healthily this year as private and capital spending continue to firm, supported by the development of oil sector projects, which should bolster investment and employment levels in turn. Downside risks to the outlook remain, however, including a low vaccination rate and new Covid-19 strains, extreme weather events, and elevated public debt stocks. FocusEconomics panelists forecast the economy to grow 5.5% in 2022, which is unchanged from last month’s projection, and 6.0% in 2023.

Uganda Economy Data

Population (million)35.536.637.738.839.8
GDP per capita (USD)829835837867912
GDP (USD bn)29.430.531.533.736.3
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-3.9-4.1-3.2-3.8-6.7
Public Debt (% of GDP)34.337.139.741.4–  
Money (annual variation in %)5.613.515.46.316.2
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)
Policy Interest Rate (%)17.0012.009.5010.009.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)3,3723,6103,6453,7153,670
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)3,2403,4183,6123,7283,704
Current Account (% of GDP)-6.2-2.8-4.5-7.2-9.5
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-1.7-0.8-1.5-2.3-2.3
Trade Balance (USD billion)-2.3-1.6-1.7-2.5-2.7
Exports (USD billion)
Imports (USD billion)
Exports (annual variation in %)-2.19.518.15.611.9
Imports (annual variation in %)-2.8-8.814.318.111.7
International Reserves (USD)
External Debt (% of GDP)32.533.037.136.6–  
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